Nuclear prohibition has failed

[Dylan]

[exploited]

@Spider

It isn't the Cold War. I think we can both agree that it is, in fact, 2014.

What extremely complex set of variables are we talking about here? You refer to them, but I've yet to see them defined. All you've said is that these matters are complex, and from that concluded that stabilization is impossible and the ME will self-destruct when the oil runs out, at some point in the next 50-200 years. Also that nukes are bad.

I don't consider that a valid argument.

I agree that the ME faces economic trouble if it doesn't diversify. But let's be honest here: they are going to have oil for a very long time. Much longer than Iran will be denied the nuke, that is for sure.

As for the belief that the ME is going to inevitably collapse, well, I don't really have any confidence in predictions of that nature. Too long of a time scale to be possible.

I find your assertion that the US and Israel don't care about Iran a really... interesting one. As if we haven't been messing with that country since the 40s. You also seem to be forgetting that maybe the reason why Iran makes threats of this nature is due to this history, combined with the current threats it faces.

Israel has 100-200 undeclared nuclear weapons, which have never been inspected by any international regulatory agencies. Mossad has killed many Iranian nuclear scientists, it bombed and killed eighteen soldiers on October 12, 2010, and it assassinated an Iranian general in November of 2011.

The US, meanwhile, just created a nightmare right next door to Iran... Invading Iraq and killing hundreds of thousands of people. Based on the slimmest evidence of course.

Iran is not innocent but it is rational. It will get a nuclear weapon and the prohibition regime will have destroyed any chance we had of influencing them or discussing those weapons. All in a futile attempt to prevent technology that has a stabilizing effect on how states interact. Instead Iran will take extreme risks to hide and move these weapons, while supporting the black market that has moved nuclear tech for forty years. This directly increases the real threats we face from nukes, while failing to counter even the less probable risks, like a nation state suicide-nuking another nation state.

Iran will not be able to browbeat anyone. Having a nuke does not make you ineligible for attack. It doesn't fix your problems. It can't prevent your enemy from harming you in innumerable ways - all it does is make it so really large bodies of military units aren't going to mosey on through your countryside. And that's it.

I know Iranians aren't Arabs. I said it was like the notion for a reason.

[exploited]

[PoS]

[Gandhi]