I'm no longer sure what to think.

[exploited]

The stock market and the gubmint is broken boys.

[John Galt]

Stock market != The economy

Corporations are largely fine and can weather this

[Spider]

The stock market may not be the economy but it's definitely a leading indicator. And it's completely nonsensical for there to be such a positive leading indicator against an economy in recession with crazy high unemployment and wildly depressed corporate earnings.

The economy isn't corporations either. It's consumerism. People have to be willing to recklessly blow all their money all the time on worthless nonsense. That's the US economy in a nutshell.

the market is up on very low volume because a bunch of stupid people are buying into it. Smart money's on the sidelines. Buffet is sitting on a giant smaug the dragon style hoard of cash, and even exiting his airline positions at huge losses.

But who f**k knows what's going on? Equities markets are a big scam. Joblessness doesn't matter. Earnings don't matter. Debt doesn't matter. Rental delinquency doesn't matter. The US dollar is flying off the rollers like so much toilet paper. And everybody's downloading Robinhood so they can buy f**k stock on their phones with stimulus money.

Eventually there needs to be some sort of a tectonic shift...some point at which the economy and the markets come crashing back together into some sort of relationship with each other with regard to reality. Or maybe the whole thing is really so f**k fraudulent that they can simply engineer a recovery with fake money and optimism.

[Winchester]

[Kane]

Recovery might not be as bad as initially thought. Depends on the 'rona and our ability to cope with secondary outbreaks/testing capability. Recent actions eliminating anitbody tests indicate our testing ability is worse than we thought.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020 ... going.html

We're still looking at unemployment in double digits by years end though. I think that we're not prepared for another outbreak yet and that if proper planning isn't implemented we're looking at a "W" recovery that will take longer still. Market is being supported by the Fed, Treasury, and individual investors. As time goes on and numbers are more solidified I expect another sustained drop. Larger corps are only now starting to suffer - Hertz, Airlines starting to lay off huge % of workers, Boeing to lay off huge % of workers, etc. Because of the HUGE number of unemployed I expect while most may get back to work an unemployment rate above 10% throughout the year will weigh on GDP and overall growth - Q2 and even Q3 likely won't show growth and will remain negative. No "V" recovery, maybe a "U" depending on your expected timeframe, but most likely a Nike "Swoosh."

It just takes time. We're only opening up now and I think people remain optimistic about returning to work as if nothing happened and don't yet realize the damage done to smaller businesses everywhere. Feds most recent beige book indicates a 1/3 of smaller businesses are likely not coming back. People are still in denial.

[Spider]

[Spider]

Honestly, Kane, I don't think anyone gives a shit about the beer virus anymore. Half the country seems to think it's all a big hoax. The president of the United States is literally mocking people for wearing masks. And Wall Street is straight up jerking off in public.

I guess we'll see what we'll see if all these unemployed people are actually allowed to feel it.

[Kane]

[Kane]

[Kane]