by Spider » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:35 pm
Logically, and bearing in mind an entire century of repeated precident, I'd say it's going to be extremely bad and I'm very bearish. Almost to the point of wanting to nut up and blow all my unallocated cash money on shorts like some kinda idiot. And this includes the knowledge that there's actually a gigantic debt crisis unrelated to the outbreak that's potentially going to wreck economies anyways.
That said, we have a situation where we have completely irresponsible and unlimited quantitative easing. Combine that with a whole lot of sweet summer children who've been investing in the Long Summer, and have no idea what winter is like...who very well might propel the market along with exuberance and sunk cost fallacy against all reason or caution. combine that with the fact that the actual numbers related to the virus itself might be nowhere near as bad as everyone's projecting, and everything but the unknown dilution of EPS is already baked in.
So who the hell knows? but all this talk about an L shaped recovery that lasts on and on coupled to stagflation and coupled to a new depression... I highly doubt it. But still in the near-term it's really going to suck. That's my take anyway.
Bad time to buy jet skis.
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