by Boris Johnson » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:44 am
The government's deficit plan is not failing miserably, its one of the few things allowing us to borrow still at competitive rates, which is imperative as we cannot plausibly raise billions more in tax recites and thus, if we cannot borrow, we must be bailed. Something I might add the Labour party would also have acted to protect. Indeed its very easy to criticise everything in opposition as you never have to come up with an actual cohesive plan to put in action.
The real issue here ladies and gents, is that we as a small island nation throughout engaged in trade in every thing imaginable and thus, are very dependent on the world markets. No more important is our closest neighbour and biggest economic zone in the world, the E.U. The idea we can some how grow our way out of this with our own governments action alone is frankly nonsense. We simply do not have anything like the size of domestic market or current place on the world economy to in any way achieve this.
Our economy is never going to be able to really recover until and any minor improvement can be swept away (such perhaps as the last move out of recession) one of three things happens all of which will eventually result in the European markets stabilising and trade, interbank lending etc etc etc between us and them regaining confidence.
1) the euro as a single currency collapses, the majority of the world is thrown into an even more serious depression.
2) The south of Europe in effect withdraws from the euro, the euro after a period of instability stabilises, southern Europe goes through a serious depression but is able to deflate its currency to eventually get out of it.
3) Europe achieves fiscal union of a fairly strong sort. The southern European economies are brought to heel with a decade or more of austerity.
And this is nothing if China cannot achieve some sort of sustainable growth pattern. the 8% days are coming to an end.
Then there's the looming american debt crisis they keep putting off.
Government economic policy is like our economic situation hostage to world events which is it only able to effect minimally.
Even if we had, say, gone for an approach of massive government spending on 'growth projects', considering inter-bank lending is still more concerned with world markets than ever, how much that would of worked is an unknown. Furthermore, even with a total all out success and say us being at 1.5% growth for the last year maybe 0.75-1 before that, what's to say this would have held up against the euro crisis? Its all fine to continue to believe that this issue is still primarly one of a problem in the banking sector, but what it has really exposed (well people were saying this a long time ago back when it started) is the fundamentally and unstable heterogeneity of the eurozone. Moreover, with a more neo-keynsian approach of the sort advocated by Krugman we also could have ended up much further along a path the U.S is heading with our credibility as a creditor being pushed to its limit.