How Likely is War with Russia?

[The Comrade]

[eric]

If Russia admits they are their forces. And even if so, so what? Russia would just fight if it was their actual forces because, well, they can and they're right on the border of Russia.

[The Comrade]

[eric]

[The Comrade]

so we'll just let russia remake the warsaw pact because we, for some inexplicable reason, will let NATO, an alliance completely dominated by us, collapse? and we won't fight russia.....because...something. and then russia will use tactical nukes because they want metro 2033 to be a work of non-fiction?


okay

[eric]

Alright never mind

[exploited]

[The Comrade]

spend 20 years becoming a pariah state with no economic or military significance?

the long con.

[Kane]

Given the precarious state of international affairs as well as the current global economic system it's plausible but not probable. China would need a new leader, one of the old guard would have to assume power and act unilaterally (with considerable consensus from the seven members of the PSC) and they'd have to be alright with abandoning their current economic infrastructure. It's just not likely. If Russia attacked now without Chinese backing...Russia would literally get its shit pushed back in. Stuff is just too on edge already, there would need to be something that tipped it in that direction (like another economic crisis that resolves itself poorly). Without that, you have growing global peers that risk everything by doing something potentially stupid.

[carlsen]