Red Line

[eric]

[kapitokrug]

Intrade says there's a 50/50 chance by the end of 2013.

Rather shocking. I would have put it at 1/100. Guess I'll sell some contracts.

[Aaron]

I think the racial backlash will be too great if Israel is used as a proxy. If it happens, it'll be NATO

[Spider]

I'm not convinced Israel can actually pull it off. Iran's air defenses are antiquated...but there are actually quite a lot of them...Israel would lose a lot of planes on SEAD strikes before they could realistically target the sites, methinks.

The Iranian air force itself doesn't count for much, and would probably be swatted in a 21st century air battle.

[Sparse1]

Any aircraft from Israeli bases have to fly through either Iraq or Turkey and Syria or Lebanon and they are not going to get permission for that. They would need to use American bases on the Gulf to do that so will need direct American support. I can't believe they are going to start lobbing missiles about the place either when Iran probably has the technology to retaliate with missile strikes.

I think this is more about Israel trying to pressure Obama in election year than actually a threat to do something.

It's extremely unlikely that Iran are going to go further than establishing breakout capability anyway - actually developing weapons is totally unnecessary. That is not a problem for the international community - so long as they don't overtly violate the Non-proliferation treaty - and I don't think there will be any major international action (nor should there be).

[Boris Johnson]

It's not like the isareli's to make threats that lack credibility.

I've been thinking for a while now 'why has no one tried a drone swarm strike yet?'. Then again no one has needed to. Such a thing could be launched from sea, even prehaps by a submarine. Mind you that just a possibility and i'm not sure if it would work if the Iranians have manged to hardern enough of their key sites (I know they have done so with at least one).

But the israeli's would not be making these threats if their cabinet did not think they could carry them out.

[The Comrade]

israel can't do anything by itself. they've even admitted as much. they won't attack.

[fstarcstar]

[Spider]

I'm talking about ground based defenses. There are hundreds of SAM sites, for example, plus a lot of good old fashioned artillery. One does not simply walk into Iran. (Without first either pounding the place with missiles or taking the time to deal with their defenses from the air, same as us in Iraq or Libya-where the US flew nearly all of the SEAD missions, which made me want to hit the rest of NATO in the face with a pipe wrench)

[Nico]