Japan sets out defence strategy amid China tensions

[Dylan]

[eynon81]

Ready for some "Guns of August" shit? Do you remember back in 2010 when the North Koreans started shelling the South Koreans for a bit? I had that day off for some reason and remember waking up to that headline and then a much smaller one about India moving massive amounts of troops to the Chinese border. I thought I had woken up to the start of the 3rd world war.

China has so much to lose in that even a limited war with Japan would likely spill over at least into Central Asia (with its permanent American garrisons) and maybe South Asia as well.

Conflict with Japan would certainly mean conflict with the US and maybe mean conflict with India, Korea, Vietnam (who just got 35 million in US military aid), and the Philipines.

bit too risky for Islands, unless there is something going on that I'm not privy too.

[eric]

No war. It's just posturing and politicking. Such a war would be so devastating to all parties involved that it just won't happen. For every fantasy of Chinese troops parading through Tokyo, there's an ICBM for Beijing.

This is all just an excuse for all governments involved to increase power.

[eynon81]

[eric]

I could see a China splitting up before an all out war in East Asia. Just so much to lose. So many people.

[eynon81]

[eric]

Would it though? Imagine here in the US where we have all this talk about leaving (looking at you Texas) and China starts a war with us. What's the reaction? Gays invading Texas? I think people would just rally.

I imagine it would be the same in China.

[eynon81]

[eynon81]

I would actually posit that the weaker China is, the more war is likely.

We should be quite honest with ourselves and remember that China is not yet a superpower. Often we make the mistake of calling China a superpower, and then equating it to the united states in some completely inappropriate manner. The US does not yet see China as a superpower, and China itself does not yet act like a super power. Until both of those happen, I think war is more likely. The kind of stunts you have seen the Chinese pull, or conversely the lack of respect America gives China, will likely open the door for any conflict. In the future, when China is stronger relative to the United States, both sides will settle into a regime similar to that of the cold war. The US won't do objectionable things like Bombing a Chinese Embassy in a third world country, because the US will have a level of respect for the Chinese that is one of equals. China, in turn, will stop acting so insecure about it's national sovereignty, history and geography, which will go a long way to not pissing off all it's neighbors.

The problem is when China is weak. A weak China supports an absurd regime in North Korea because at least it's an ally! A stronger mature china would not put up with some crackpot right on their border. A weak China encourages America to do annoying things like park an aircraft carrier a dicks length away from Chinese waters. These immature and petty moves are likely to be what leads to war. Furthermore, we set a baaaad precedent back in Korea. The Chinese understand they can go to war with america, and as long as things don't go to far, nuclear weapons will not be used. The Chinese understand they can't invade the US for example... but a war in Korea? ...A fight with the navy in the taiwan straights? Will that really get Beijing nuked? I don't think so, and I'm pretty sure the Chinese don't either.

Ultimately, I think we are headed for a run in with China one way or another. To borrow a phrase from another well known black scholar, we will soon reach a tipping point. Yes, Malcolm Gladwell is black you racists. I don't think people realize, but the CCCP is being pushed into a corner. It's not sustainable. China is rapidly approaching the level of wealth beyond which authoritarian government being to look a bit tacky. Furthermore, the Chinese masses can actually be pretty nationalistic and bloodthirsty. Already on issues regarding Japan and the South China Sea, the CCCP has been pushed into some pretty extreme positions by the vocal masses. I could see the CCCP adopting some absurd nationalistic positions in their struggle to maintain popularity and relevance in a country that becomes increasingly wealthy and westernized. In 50 years, I just don't see the communist party as the only political entity in China. I can't see getting from here to there without a few bumps in the road, weather that means a crisis in China or a war with the US or it's neighbors.

I genuinely do not think though the CCCP wants to, or is capable of drafting and implementing some long grand strategy for geopolitical influence. I think they are selectively applying free-market and western ideals in order to maintain just enough growth to cling to power. Anything beyond that I think is a secondary.

God Bless.

[Dobby]

I can't imagine the us supporting Japan with 'troops on the ground' if it came to full scale war. Although war of that kind seems incredibly unlikely anyway.

On another note Japan themselves could do a lot to help prevent a war. Giving a proper apology and educating their children about the treacherous atrocities their country has committed in the past would be a start. The way they barely acknowledge the Nanking massacre is abhorrent and obviously pisses the Chinese off.