We're less than two months away from the 2014 elections now, and it seems quite clear that the Republicans will keep control of the House, while the Senate seems to be up for grabs. If the Democrats do manage to hold on to the Senate, it seems fairly obvious what will happen next, nothing whatsoever. It will be complete gridlock like the last 2 years, with no bills of any significance passed before 2016.
So the question I want to discuss here is simple: What happens if the Republicans win the Senate ?
If they do win the Senate, that would leave Republicans in charge of both chambers of Congress, though obviously not in charge of the White House. I think that's a fairly obvious recipe for another government shutdown, since the GOP will certainly try to defund Obamacare, and Obama can't possibly sign such a bill. What I can't figure out, is how they're going to resolve that impasse. Any ideas ?
Obamacare is far from perfect, so there are many reasonable compromises that could be made to improve this bill, but I can't imagine in such thing happening in the current political climate. I think it will basically be a game of chicken, where Congress attaches amendments to defund Obamacare to all their bills including the budget, and Obama vetoes every single one of them, until the government is forced into another shutdown sometime next year.
Aside from the Obamacare fights, I imagine the Republicans will also try to pass a bunch of their favorite bills, meaning tax cuts for the rich, border security disguised as immigration reform, widespread deregulation etc, and Obama will probably end up signing a few of those, as long as they don't overreach too much.