Got no idea where this thread has gone over the holidays. 50+ pages that I won't read.
But, I thought about something over that time. I live in a community that is mostly middle-class and white. But, there is one section that has mixed-income housing and is predominantly black. It's a tiny town, with something like 5000-10,000 people. Let's say that it has 80% white and 20% black. If it were true, that blacks are arrested more simply because cops spend more time among them, it would be easy to test this theory. Right now, let's say that cops spend 50% of their time in a white neighborhood, and 50% in a black one. That's disproportionate, and would lend credence to that theory.
But, what would happen if the cops spent 20% of their time in the black community and 80% in the white one? Would crime rates be similar?
I don't know - it's a thought experiment (until I can convince a police chief to go along). But, I have a VERY hard time believing that crime rates would be totally similar. Would it move in the right direction? Most probably. But, be equal (or commensurate with population percentages)? I doubt it.
However, thought experiment B would be to do the same thing, but split the police among household income lines. The assumption is that lower income levels would equal higher crime (though, is that even true?).