Let's say you were involved in a game where you currently have 99% chance of winning $1000.
a) You were given a chance to pay to pay a certain amount to raise that winning odds to 100%, how much would you pay?
b) How much would you pay to raise the odds to 99.99%?
99% chance of winning $1000
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99% chance of winning $1000
by Stratego » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:26 am
Sigmund Freud defined four parts of a psyche; the id, the ego, the superego and the stratego. The Stratego being the highest form of morality and scientific thinking.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
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Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by spacemonkey » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:32 am
37 cents.
The hardest part of doing nothing is knowing when your done.
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Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Stratego » Thu Oct 29, 2015 12:07 pm
Sigmund Freud defined four parts of a psyche; the id, the ego, the superego and the stratego. The Stratego being the highest form of morality and scientific thinking.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
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Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Winchester » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:02 pm
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Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Saz » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:35 pm
20 for 100% chance 10 for 99.9
RISK AVERSE
RISK AVERSE
DON'T BE A TOUGH GUY. DON'T BE A FOOL! I WILL CALL YOU LATER.
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Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Dylan » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:49 pm
I probably would too Saz, likely more. EV is cool and all but at the margins of likelihood itss utility decreases.
E.g., the EV for a lottery ticket is usually above the cost. But it's still a low value proposition obviously.
E.g., the EV for a lottery ticket is usually above the cost. But it's still a low value proposition obviously.
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