by exploited » Wed May 18, 2016 9:42 am
To summarize, divided government can have a good, bad or neutral impact on the economy. Which impact largely depends upon context - the state of the economy in general, the specific composition of Congress, the pragmatism or idealism of the President, global markets, etc.
There is no real evidence that a divided government is always or mostly good for the economy. There are some correlations, but they are suspect for many reasons - one, they don't account for other correlations, and therefore do not establish causation. Two, they don't analyze the specific actions of a specific government, but instead simply note that the economy did this while the government was either divided or not. Three, they don't account for the outliers (ie when divided government passes sweeping legislation, or when unified government compromises). Four, they make no distinction between degrees of polarization - 1970s Dems and Reps would be absolutely and relatively less polarized than 2016 Dems and Reps.
As for legislative quality and quantity, it has been definitively shown that divided government decreases both.
That's about as fair of a summary I can make, Prof.