by John Galt » Mon Nov 28, 2016 7:59 pm
so the next thing that's pretty big on the block is dec 4th referendum in italy to change the constitution
italy set up a government that is pretty awful, but they did it to try and stop their problem with populism. i mean, il duce.... but some reformers want to change all that. on dec 4th, the senate may become subservant to the house, and the house would be guaranteed to have 54% of the seats to the top party, somehow. the idea is to stop gridlock, since currently both houses have equal powers. in exchange the senate is removed from the democratic process and is instead selected by regional governments and has some power but less.
anyway. lets say it passes, and the reformer gets his way. well... currently beppe grillo, a comedian, is polling like 4% below the ruling party (sound familiar?). they talk about leaving the euro (though not the eu... yet) and are anti immigration, you know, lets make italy great again. at least they aren't talking mare nostrum... anyway, lets say the referendum passes. an election could be held rather quickly afterword as the president hols that power and the 5-star movement of beppe could be in charge with guaranteed majority for up to 5 years.
if the referendum fails, the current prime minister has promised to resign. the resignation would undoubtedly cause the government to go into a snap election and thus, the euroskeptics gain power. i think it's clear that polls are all wrong, and especially if the thing fails then the snap election would not bode well for establishment
so 2016 ain't over yet. i have a feeling we'll get a NO. so at least it won't be guaranteed majority, but italian parliament is wonky anyway and so it still gives disproportional votes to the top winners, which could cause the 5-star party in the resulting snap election to have some huge amount of seats and gain power. i assume LN, the right wing populists, will also be in on this. so we'll have populists in charge of italy to ring in the new year. then france is on the chopping block
Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience. -- Theodore Roosevelt
My life has become a single, ongoing revelation that I haven’t been cynical enough.