Ukraine Invasion

[Saz]

Putin isn't going to invade Ukraine, stop wringing your hands. This is just typical probing of a new administration to gauge our response and appetite for a fight. You guys give Putin and Xi way too much credit - Putin does not want a war with Ukraine, he is playing from the back foot here because his 2014 invasion obviously pissed off Ukraine who now actually want to join NATO, a disaster and embarrassment for Russia. Putin is just throwing his tanks around to try to get some commitment from Biden re Ukraine never joining NATO or giving away some territory in the east. This is the same reason Russian separatists continue to occupy a corner of Ukraine - Ukraine can never be admitted to NATO while some of its territory is occupied by Russia, and Putin know this. But a full invasion of Ukraine would be a disaster for Russia - not that they would lose, but its a massive country with a serious military and obviously a good portion of the country would fight bitterly. This is without any US involvement. Putin just wants his near term guarantee on no NATO and no western forces in Ukraine, and in the process to gauge our appetite to fight for Ukraine (it's zero). He will no doubt invade when the China do something to merit our full attention, but he isn't going to start shit now - the guy isn't a risk taking clown like Bush.

China is the much bigger worry. The economy seems to be decelerating and unlike in Russia, this is not the standard state of affairs the Chinese people or party appatichiks are accustomed to. Xi is not in anywhere near as strong a position as many people assume and this is very dangerous because there are no doubt members of the party who want his scalp a and a slowing economy only gives them ammunition, so Xi may need a win on his CV in the next few years. That said, there is no clearer or more obvious path to Xi's own downfall than a botched invasion of Taiwan, so he obvious needs to be quite careful as well. I do not think he moved in the near term because its obvious Xi and the party at large believe their own propaganda regarding american decline and expect to have a stronger hand in the near future. Give it 5 years and that's when things will get really dicy - Xi will still be in the chair but the economy will be half a decade into the new, slower growth, reality. It's military will be significantly more capable and god knows where the US will be at that point. Trump could very well be in office 2024-2028 and USA hosts World Cup in 2026 and Olympics in 2028, the timing for a Chinese stunt just seems to appropriate. China will not invade outright, they will probe and probe until its clear we do nothing. I could easily see them sailing a massive fleet within 30 miles of taiwan during WC or Olympics, and then just parking it there and saying good luck forcing us out. They won't shoot and we won't shoot, and we will get used to a huge armada siting off taiwan.

Rememberer the USA is buck wild and we have redlines as well and frankly no one has a clue where they are. If you think we are scared of the Russian or Chinese nuclear arsenals - well lets just say we are the only country to have used nukes in war to date and are almost certainly the most likely country to use them again. Foreigners have rightful reason to be concerned americans have an itchy trigger finger and this is why the tactics employed by Russia and China are always sub scale shit like cyberattacks - they know the US has an extreme capacity for war if the populace is given a political reason to wage one. Russia and China do not want to create that reason, and they will continue to probe us until they have some assurance that invading Ukraine or blockading Taiwan will not result in a political consensus for war. Both of these nations probably rightfully think the US is best left fighting itself, which we are proceeding with quite well at the moment, and that uniting the country in a war against a common enemy would be a huge strategic blunder. It's interesting because if you read the academic commentary the appropriate US response is quite clear - containment, cold war style. Like the soviet union, both Russia and China feel they can prevail by simply biding their time, eventually the US will collapse upon itself and then they will have a free hand. We would take the opposite approach - overtime the authoritarian regimes in russia and china will collapse as they fail to deliver economically and innovate. I'm not sure the US would have made this same calculate re China 5 years ago - but with Xi up to his Maoist nonsense, I think the US is much more confident we can prevail long term. But Chinese and Russian machinations must be met with force. Putin must realise the only consequence of Russian troops in Ukraine will be US troops in Ukraine. China must realise we can and will drive up the cost of any Taiwanese invasion to extreme levels.

[Kane]

Look up NovoRossiya - taking Southern Ukraine has been the goal all along. He's not done yet and it's going to happen. Especially now that he knows the only consequences will be economic in nature. He wants to restore the USSR and with the baltic sea being Russia' only warm water port he needs to cement a foothold over the region whatever the cost. With this he can still trade with everybody else via the sea year 'round. Effectively taking the southern portion of Ukraine helps to accomplish this goal while also depriving northern Ukraine it's most productive/profitable provinces. Donetsk was a huge win for this reason alone. He knows what he wants and he increasingly sees that the longer he waits the more we can prepare/assemble. So far sanctions, words, and prayers haven't stopped him.

It's hard to talk about China because they're hiding the extent of the slowdown. Property sector - even if in a managed decline by the state - will need to deleverage for a long while. Shit dude - have you looked at their bullet trains that they build over the past 20 years? Vast and expansive program built with government largesse but also under fairly corrupt pretenses as well. Several of the new lines aren't profitable and tickets aren't keeping up with the interest owed at all stations post COVID. Ridership was absolutely annihilated. While it too will likely be nationalized and the state will absorb the debt the railway system has $850 Billion in debt outstanding...China knows it's not building more trains during the downturn. China knows it's probably not wise to build more....cities.

Consumers still save a huge amount of their incomes. Hard to see how China corrects for this without something external.

[Saz]

[Kane]

[Kane]

[Kane]

[Kane]

[Saz]

Good bit by an Estonian parliamentarian here that pretty clearly articulates Putins aims. It's not flattering to the US or to Biden and again shows how far we have fallen. We don't have many options and have come to the negotiating table with no clear aims from a position of weakness. We should have sent two armoured brigades to Germany and a whole f**k infantry division to the Baltics weeks ago.

You cannot be limp wristed with the Russians, this is not how you communicate or negotiate with them. As the article says, when Putin shows up to the negotiating table with a pistol and you come with a box of chocolates hoping to demonstrate good will, he is going to laugh and knows EXACTLY how these negotiations will go. Sanctions will not be as damaging as we think, the Russians have been preparing to be completely sanctioned for a decade. It's apparent we have no f**k idea what to do and that's an absolute disaster - we are now negotiating basic NATO principles which is not a discussion that can be had without severe splits in the alliance. We have allowed the issue to transform from one about a few eastern provinces of Ukraine to the entire European and NATO security structure generally.

We must put a clear line in the sand and be ready to back that line. Ukraine is not a EU member. It is not a NATO member. We need to be clear about where we draw the line and that line cannot be a single step back from existing NATO commitments. Tell Putin point blank, if you want eastern Ukraine we can't stop you and we won't try (we don't want eastern Ukraine or anything to do with it anyway). But if you do this by force we are going to put substantial nato forces along the entire NATO/RUSSIA border, including short and intermediate range missiles. We will actively work to bring in new NATO members that border Russia, including Finland and whatever rump state remains of the Ukraine.

If Putin has grand illusions of rebuilding the Soviet empire, we will treat him like we treated the Soviets. The Russians are not the Chinese, they cannot afford these sort of regular deployments, extended occupations and an arms race with the US and Western Europe.

https://www.greatpower.us/p/how-threats ... ine-became

[Kane]

We'll see. I think recent events in Kazakhstan have only sought to amplify Putin's concerns and increased the chance of an incursion. He's coming at this from the perspective that he has nothing to lose.

[John Galt]

i think the kazakh stuff was unexpected. Russia doesn't have the capacity to deal with it at the moment, it's trying to bully its way to get ukraine

since Russia has decided not to abide by the budapest memorandum, ukraine should become nuclear armed again, like, don't even need to put them in NATO, just make a big deal how they get nukes until their border integrity is restored to the budapest memorandum