Ukraine Invasion

[John Galt]

[Saz]

[exploited]

China is a f**k joke, and I'm consistently surprised by your inability to realize what is happening around you.

[Eternal]

Not to be pessimistic but Russia has three things going for it right now:

1) The wests short attention span - Will we still be talking about this a year from now?
2) Support from China - China's support for Russia has more benefits than risks. Whether Americans like to acknowledge it or not, Europe is a major economic power and still has influence in the world. Russia's invasion of Ukraine focuses Europe's attention towards Russia not China. The increased costs associated with Europe's energy shortfall make the likelihood of it imposing trade sanctions against China now less likely.
3) India's unwillingness to condemn Russia's actions - The Quad, what Quad? In a single blow this bogus organisation has failed at its first hurdle. So long as India remains close friends with Russia its ability to work with Australia, Japan and the USA will be compromised as will our ability to share strategic information with them.

As many have now observed about Russian military tools and strategy, its not very advanced. All it does is just bomb the shit out of things. Primitive but effective, look at Syria and Chechnya. While we may be inspired by Ukraine's current resolve to stand against Russia now, how will that resolve look after 1, 2 or 3 years of sustained bombing? Russia's main weapon is one of attrition.

The fact of the matter is the wests unwillingness to get our hands dirty will eventually poison Ukraine's' friendship with the west. How would you feel if your family was drowning and someone who could reach across and pull you and your family out instead just throws you some life vests and tells you to keep treading water.

As for sanctions, all they seem to do is make Russia more determined not less. So long as China and India refuse to come on board the sanction bus they will still have access to all the essentials they need to survive.

The only way, and I mean the only way, this can be reversed is by the west joining the fight. This is the single thing that neither Russia or China are expecting.

Extreme yes. But the time has come for a line in the sand.

[Spider]

You think twice about throwing a rope when it might get you, you know, vaporized.

Exactly how certain do we need to be of The Tzar's sanity in order to make sure Ukraine continues on with a blue and yellow flag?

How would that play out? NATO goes in and starts throwing lightning bolts... and Putin does what?

[Eternal]

So we do nothing and after 2 - 3 years:

1) Ukraine has had the crapped bombed out of it.
2) The conflict rarely rates a mention in the western news
3) Most of its citizens have fled to surrounding countries.
4) Its leaders have been captured and executed.

Suddenly the conflict is declared over. New elections are held and surprise surprise someone friendly to the Kremlin is elected.

As for sanctions against Russia? Pfft!! We had sanctions against Iraq, didn't stop Australia illegally selling it wheat. What about sanctions against Iran's nuclear program? Oh wait.....didn't Germany supply it centrifuges? As much as we talk the sanctions up now, too many vested interests want to make a buck and in the end those vested interests will always find a way.

So what does this all mean for the west? As most of us all know at the end of the cold war there was a frenzy of countries becoming democracies. But over the past 20 years these "democracies" have become less and less. Even the good old USA is beginning to fade.

People are losing faith in democracy and in the west itself. We need a revival.

What I keep coming back to is the Cuban missile crises. We need to do more than just talk. We need to act. We need to show that the values we believe in are worth fighting for not just for ourselves, but for all countries that embrace them.

[Kane]

[Kane]

[Kane]

[Eternal]