by Kane » Fri Nov 16, 2012 12:06 pm
Germany, the ECB, and the IMF has consistently underestimated the depth of the crisis and the degree to which social instability can and will play a role. The Euro may survive but the current course of action strictly limited to austerity and bringing government balances into check through cuts will mean steadily decreasing output and increasing unemployment levels. This can and has led to political instability. The movement by politicians to utilize this crisis to their own ends is ultimately causing the economy further harm because of how long it's taking them to find mutual compromises as they attempt to hold onto power within their own states.
I don't think the Euro will collapse but I think economic growth out of Europe will be slow and grueling for a long time. The IMF recanting on its own pledge to extreme austerity is acknowledgement of this fact.
We'll see if the political bodies can find a way to wiggle out of it as well but they've spent so much time capitalizing off of one angle...
This is also why Spain's so hesitant to ask the ECB for a bailout. It knows that it comes conditional and that its budget can be slashed altogether to meet criteria that'll make their economy look like Greece.
It's a terrible situation.